Pakistan's economy may be the sixth largest by 2075.

By: Aur Sunao

With "proper policies and institutions," Goldman Sachs predicts Pakistan would be the sixth largest economy by 2075. Economists Kevin Daly and Tadas Gedminas predicted in "The Path to 2075" that China, India, the US, Indonesia, and Nigeria would be the five largest economies by 2075.

Pakistan, Egypt, and Nigeria may be among the world's top economies in 50 years due to their population growth. By then, Pakistan's Real GDP will be $12.7 trillion and its GDP per capita $27,100. Two economists expect China's GDP to surpass the US's in 2035. In 2075, India's GDP will surpass the US's.

Goldman Sachs boosted their long-term growth estimates for the BRIC economies (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) to 70 emerging and developed economies two decades later. Economists now project 104 countries through 2075.

"Protectionism and climate change" were key risks for growth and income convergence, according to Daly and Gedminas. Environmental catastrophe and populist nationalism were the economists' main concerns.

The research noted that worldwide growth had slowed from 3.6% to 3.2% during the preceding decade, and the downturn was broad-based. Economists predicted global growth will average 2.8% between 2024 and 2029 and then decline. They anticipated that developing markets will continue to converge, with China, the US, India, 

Indonesia, and Germany topping the dollar-based list of largest economies. Nigeria, Pakistan, and Egypt may also be.

They predicted that the US will not repeat its relative strength of the recent decade and that the dollar's remarkable durability would fade over the coming decade.

The economists wrote that their predictions suggested global potential growth had peaked. Demographics accounted for most of this expected slowdown, as world population growth had halved in 50 years.